Early in 2013, TSAS had its first Call for Proposals. Ten project proposals were selected for research funding between April, 2013 and March, 2014. Each successful project is expected to generate at least one TSAS Working Paper and an accompanying Policy Briefing Note.
The Key Researchers for the following 10 project proposals presented their findings in Ottawa on May 30, 2014. Working papers are published in the digital library.
Description:
At a fundamental level, responding to the threat posed by terrorist radicalization is hampered by a paucity of baseline information. Most notably, the prevalence of extremist, and violent extremists, is unknown. The reason for this gap is straightforward: violent extremists represent the ultimately example of what is often referred to as “hidden” or “hard to count” populations. The solution to this problem is more daunting. Ultimately, the goal of this project is to establish a framework for answering these questions: How many extremists are there in Canada? And how many of these are potentially violent extremists? To this end, this research will a) identify various methods that have been proposed to estimate hidden populations generally; b) critically evaluate how these methods might be extended or adapted to estimate the number of extremists.
Description:
Public safety has been an important concern over the years. When a public event is held in an urban environment like Olympic games or soccer games, it is important to keep the public safe and at the same time, to have a specific plan to control and rescue the public in the case of a terrorist attack. In order to better position public safety in communities against potential threats, it is of utmost importance to identify existing gaps, define priorities and focus on developing approaches to address those. This project aims to make an extension to the GENIUS system, where crowd simulation will be included in the computational modeling framework for counter-terrorism planning and response. Based on swarm intelligence and agent-based modeling, we will create a model where the system can create a large number of people with specific behavioral characteristics. It is our goal to create a tool where operator can simulate a crowd of over 20,000 individuals. Police and other law enforcement officers can use this tool for training and operational simulation.
Description:
This project examines the dynamics of the fundamental political beliefs and values of newcomers to Canada. To what extent do the beliefs and values of immigrant Canadians match the dominant political orientations of the majority domestic-born population? What are the origins of those beliefs and values? How do they change as immigrants gain greater exposure to Canadian politics and society? The project focuses on views about: how society ought to be governed; the relationship between citizens and the state; and relationships between citizens. For each of these dimensions, two distinct empirical possibilities are considered. First, we assess the extent to which early political socialization in the country of origin shapes immigrants’ political outlooks by comparing the attitudes of immigrants from different countries of origin to those of the domestic-born Canadian population. The expectation is that if political attitudes formed in the country of origin persist after migration then immigrants from social, economic, and political systems that are dramatically different from Canada may hold distinctive political outlooks. Second, we assess whether exposure to Canadian politics and society influences the political attitudes of newcomers by comparing the attitudes of immigrants residing in Canada for various lengths of time to those of the domestic-born population. The expectation is that if immigrants adopt the dominant political attitudes of the domestic-born population as they gain exposure to Canadian politics and society, then well established immigrants are more likely than relative newcomers to hold political attitudes that are similar to those of the domestic-born population.
Description:
In recent years, eco-terrorism has become a new concern of many developed countries. The awareness of environmental preservation and protection is further sharpened by several large-scale natural disasters, like Hurricane Katrina in the United States and the tsunami in South East Asia and in Japan last year. The tsunami in Japan led to a huge amount of deaths and the malfunctioning of a nuclear plant, which incurred worries of the general public and environmental groups about the safety of nuclear power. These situations are concerning, as in the past this type of tension has tended to radicalize environmental groups to turn violent against businesses, factories, and individual properties. To prevent eco-terrorism, it is important to understand the nature of the problem and design effective prevention strategies.
This proposed research will combine two academic disciplines, criminology and legal studies, to explore the extent of the threats of eco-terrorism in three countries–the United States, Canada, and Japan. First, we will explore and provide a detailed illustration of eco-terrorism up-to date, including the frequency, geographic distribution, target selection, choice of weapon, and extent of casualties. The second step is to conduct comparative legal analysis examining the antiterrorist laws and legal regulations regarding environmental development in these three countries.
Finally, the findings from both quantitative analysis and legal analysis will be used to form recommendation for modern countries to strengthen the responsive ability and resilience of their systems to the potential threats of eco-terrorism and hopefully deter future attacks from happening.
Description:
This research seeks to understand the causes and processes of Islamic conversion in Canada and determine the scale of Islamic conversion growth through this initial study of Islamic conversion in Ontario.
Canadian census data shows that Islam is the fastest growing religion in the country, and that although most of the Muslim population growth is related Muslim birth rates and migration, since 2001 the Muslim population has also increased as a result of religious conversions by non-Muslim Canadians. The growth in Islamic conversions has coincided with a period of increased Islamic missionary activity, and a rise in media coverage on Muslims and Islam following the attacks by Islamic extremists on September 11, 2001.
Canadian converts are interesting from a research perspective alone because there are literally no studies on Canada’s ‘new Muslims’ to date. Improving our general understanding of Islamic conversion is particularly important in the contemporary securitized milieu post 9/11. There is a trend for converts internationally to be statistically over-represented for involvement in terrorism relative to those who are “born Muslim.” A pattern observable in Canada as well as the UK, US and Australia.
To date, two terror plots involving converts have been disrupted in Canada (2006 and 2013), and Canadian converts such as Xristos Katsiroubas who was killed in Algeria on 16 January 2013 are active as foreign fighters overseas. Despite these events the reality is that the vast majority of converts do not become radicalized let alone turn to violence. Understanding the causes and processes of Islamic conversion in Canada is essential to avoid demonizing an entire group of people as potential terrorists on the basis of their religious choice. Especially when the majority of Muslim converts report improved sociability and self-esteem as a result of practicing their new religion.
Description:
Canada has extensive experience in dealing with domestic terrorism. Key examples include the Air India Bombing in 1985 by Sikhs living in Canada aspiring for a free KhaOstan; plots such as the Toronto 18, and the planned Ottawa Bombing (2011) and events linked to the University of Manitoba students (for example, Ferid Imam, Muhannad al-Farekh, Maiwand Yar and Hiva Alizadeh). This research project is an exploratory study designed to evaluate existing roles and activities of faith based and ethno cultural community-based organizations (FBCOs) in relation to domestic terrorism.
It begins with an examination of current federal and provincial government initiatives with regards to preventing domestic terrorism such as studying Muslim community responses. Informed by some initial examination of available literatures on domestic terrorism, the study directly identifies and assesses the current thinking, approaches and activities of grassroots Muslim faith and community based leaders with regard to domestic terrorism. The overall objective of this research is to identify initiatives that create the most useful foundation for community partnerships, community resilience and engagement to deal with the problem of radicalization leading to domestic terrorism. Specific research objectives are: 1) To map Muslim FBCO leaders’ perceptions on radicalization and violent extremism; 2) To understand the causes of domestic terrorism with particular emphasis on Muslim youth involvement; 3) To explore roles of FBCOs to build community resilience in transforming this conflict peacefully.
Description:
“Right-wing Extremism in Canada” will provide an initial, comparative assessment of the future prospects for right-wing political violence and terrorism in Canada. By comparing Canadian right-wing extremist organizations and individual radicals with those in the United States and Europe, policymakers and public officials can gauge the relative security threat posed by these groups and manage the unique challenges they create. This study will examine the history of right-wing terrorism and violent extremism, highlight recent changes within associated movements, and identify challenges in monitoring and managing this threat. The project will build upon previous research conducted for Metropolis BC – “Countering Radicalization of Diaspora Communities in Canada” (2011) – to examine the interplay between rising right-wing extremism and possible reciprocal radicalization of elements within Canadian immigrant communities. Through an examination of case studies and incident data, this project will provide contemporary research exploring rightwing anti-immigrant sentiment and other drivers. With a better understanding of this phenomenon, leaders can develop effective, evidence-based policy for preventing future right-wing extremist violence and terrorism, including acts aimed at undermining the integration of immigrants within Canadian society.
The research questions for this project are: What factors may promote violent right-wing extremism in Canada, and how is it connected to similar movements in the US and Europe? What impacts might this violence have on radicalization within other communities, and what strategies can security and intelligence organizations employ to detect or reduce violent right-wing extremism?
Description:
Since 9/11, the trend to integrating security professionals from different parts of the security bureaucracy and from different jurisdictions into the same institution has accelerated. Canada, like its allies, has created new integrated institutions designed to improve its ability to counter terrorism and protect national security. Among the most prominent of these are the RCMP’s Integrated National Security Enforcement Teams (INSETs) which co-locate federal, provincial and municipal police with personnel from other federal security agencies. But how well do the INSETs work? Specifically, what are the effects of integration on how individual officers seconded to INSETs do their jobs, and how they see security? What are the benefits and drawbacks of the integrative model? How does integration influence efficiency (that is, the use of resources), effectiveness (that is, how well the institution works relative to its stated goals) and effects (that is, impact of INSET policies on politics and society). This project is part of a larger study that seeks to understand how changes in the structure of security policies, practices, and institutions since 9/11 affect the way we are governed, and the effects of such shifts on our understanding of public space, democracy, citizenship, and accountability. Comparing INSETs in Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Alberta and Vancouver will allow me to draw conclusions about integrated security in Canada, but will also form part of a case study in the larger project which compares INSETs to Fusion Centers and JTTFs in the USA, and Counter Terrorism Units in the UK.
9. The Future(s) of Terrorism and Canadian National Security
Description:
Canada has not experienced a systematic terrorist campaign within its territory or against its national interests globally. Terrorists have, however, targeted Canada and Canadian interests on a regular basis. Historically, groups that have targeted the Canadian state spanned the typologies of terrorism –ideological, ethno-nationalist, religious, and single-issue. Groups or individuals supporting terrorist activity also continue to use Canada as a base for operations in terms of procurement, propaganda, and criminal activity. Specific terrorist groups can, and have, been defeated. Moreover the threat posed by discrete types of terrorism has declined in line with the nascent theories about how terrorism ends. Terrorism itself, in contrast, is never eradicated. Groups, as well as disaffected individuals, have opted to pursue violence for a wide variety of reasons and will likely continue to do so in the foreseeable future. Although terrorism is not going to disappear from the national security priorities of Canada the threat it poses will take different forms in the future. This project seeks to elucidate the possible futures of terrorism affecting Canada in the next 10 to 15 years. By nature the work is not predictive; rather it seeks to draw on trends across a variety of areas to focus on the possible implications for terrorism and the impact on Canada and Canadian interests. The principal research question is: What forms will terrorism take in the next decade and how will these different forms impact on Canada’s national security and its national interests?
Description:
Since the 2001 World Trade Center attacks, academic and media attention have focused on Islamic terrorism. Yet, threats come from different terrorist actors, like right-wing extremist groups and skinheads. Over the past decades, these movements have evolved towards more structured organizations, providing their members with ideological foundations and clear objectives and the necessary training to achieve them. Many of these movements are simultaneously affiliated with prominent right-wing groups, such as the Heritage Front. The use of violence, also an essential component of these groups unity, is often seen as a legitimate instrument within these formations to implement their extremist ideology, and is therefore encouraged. Although the prevalence of hate crimes is difficult to assess in Canada due to lack of systematic statistics, they are nonetheless a reality and many are the fact of skinheads, encouraged by extremist leaders throughout many vectors such as the Internet, group meetings and publications. Based on a series of participant observations, interviews with skinheads, chat-room content and document analysis, this project will explore and analyze skinhead radicalization in Quebec. We will identify landmarks and determining steps in these groups’ path towards violence. Not only will this project bring a theoretical contribution on a not yet studied phenomenon in Canada, for example with regard to the role, nature, techniques and prevalence of violence in such right wing groups, and how members use it, but also it will help identify practical tools to recognize and track potential skinheads formation before they act out.